By Chibuzor Alli
Financial Derivatives Company Chief Executive Officer, Bismarck Rewane, has projected that Nigeria’s economy could expand from $278bn in 2025 to about $600bn by 2030, citing increased private-sector investment and the multiplier effects of major industrial projects such as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The projection came as the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) urged its members nationwide to invest in the planned Initial Public Offering of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals.
IPMAN described the planned share sale as an opportunity for petroleum marketers to move from being off-takers of refined products to equity owners in Nigeria’s refining industry.
In a statement signed by its National President, Abubakar Shettima, on Thursday, the association congratulated the management and board of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals on the planned IPO and public share sale.
Shettima said the offering would transform the refinery from a privately owned project into an asset in which Nigerians and industry participants could acquire direct stakes.
According to him, IPMAN recognised the strategic importance of the share sale to Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
The association said the refinery’s growing capacity would help reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products, conserve foreign exchange and strengthen domestic energy security.
Shettima urged IPMAN members to take advantage of the opportunity rather than remain solely off-takers of petroleum products.
“The National President of IPMAN therefore calls on her members nationwide to aggressively capitalise on this share sale, as it is a rare, strategic opportunity to evolve from off-takers of petroleum products into equity owners of the primary production infrastructure.
“This investment will similarly strengthen our collective capacity to guarantee affordable, steady, unhindered fuel distribution across all 36 states, and ensure price stability at our pumps,” he said.
The development comes as Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector adjusts to increased domestic refining capacity following the commencement of crude processing by the Dangote refinery.
The refinery has a nameplate capacity of 700,000 barrels per day and has progressively increased production of petrol, diesel and other petroleum products.
However, IPMAN appealed to the refinery to widen its direct petrol allocation system to cover all registered independent marketers.
Shettima said limiting direct supplies to selected marketers could create distribution bottlenecks and increase costs for consumers.
“Abubakar Shettima also strongly appeals to the management of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery not to discontinue its direct allocation of Premium Motor Spirit to independent marketers.
“Rather than limiting access or cutting off select distribution channels, IPMAN urges the refinery to expand its direct allocation framework to comprehensively capture every registered independent marketer nationwide, instead of a select few, as this is crucial to eliminating anti-competitive bottlenecks, suppressing exorbitant logistical middlemen fees, and ensuring that affordable, locally refined fuel reaches every citizen,” the statement said.
Rewane projects $600bn economy
Rewane gave the economic projection in Abuja during an investor roadshow ahead of the planned initial public offering of the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals.
According to his presentation, annual real GDP growth could accelerate from four per cent to between seven and eight per cent, while inflation could moderate from 15 per cent to between eight and 10 per cent.
The projection also assumes that non-oil GDP growth would rise from between four and five per cent to between seven and eight per cent, while oil production increases from 1.5 million barrels per day to 2.2 million bpd.
Rewane projected investment would rise from 26 per cent of GDP to 36 per cent, while manufacturing growth could accelerate from three per cent to between eight and 10 per cent, alongside an expansion and improvement in the reliability of energy supply.
The projected $600bn economy would comprise household consumption of $240bn, representing 40 per cent; investment of $216bn, or 36 per cent; government consumption of $36bn, or six per cent; and net exports of $108bn, or 18 per cent.
Rewane said the Dangote refinery and other private investments could contribute to the projections through their multiplier effects across other sectors.
“What the Dangote refinery is doing is getting into investment and adding that, and that gives you a multiplier effect,” he said.
He added, “If you look at that, let’s project forward what will happen after this investment is completed. This is what it’s going to look like. What was $278bn? It’s going to be about $600bn, and all the variables change.”
Rewane said increased investment and net exports would have implications for the foreign exchange market and external reserves.
“This means the naira gets stronger, the reserves get valuable, and Nigerians begin to benefit from this private sector-led investment. So the government creates the environment. The private sector invests. International investors come in. Domestic investors come in. African investors come in. And there’s a significant expansion of the economy,” he said.
On domestic crude processing, Rewane said refining oil locally could generate greater value than exporting crude in its raw form.
“If you export one barrel of oil, you get $100 per barrel today. If you do the value add and transform this into a conversion to wealth, you get the equivalent of $200 per barrel,” he said.
He said increased domestic refining could support import substitution, deepen the capital market and reduce Africa’s dependence on refined petroleum products imported from Europe and the Middle East.
Dangote IPO to raise N2.15tn
Speaking on the IPO, President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, said the company intended to raise N2.15tn, equivalent to about $1.6bn, to finance the refinery’s expansion programme.
Dangote’s message was delivered by the Senior Adviser, Special Projects and Strategic Relations to the Group President, Dangote Industries Limited, Fatima Wali-Abdurrahman.
He said the shares would be offered at N525 each, with a minimum subscription of 10 shares.
“The offer price and minimum subscription level is to allow for wider participation as we want every Nigerian to own a piece of this asset. That is why we have called it The IPO for the People,” he said.
Dangote added that the group was considering listing in about six other African countries as part of its continental expansion strategy.
Earlier, the Chairman of the event, Oluwagbenga Oyebode, said the offer comprised 4.1 billion ordinary shares at N525 per share, with expected net proceeds of about N2.1tn, representing 3.3 per cent of the refinery’s issued capital.
He said the proceeds would be used entirely as growth capital to finance the next phase of the refinery’s expansion rather than repair its balance sheet.
Oyebode projected that the IPO could lift total Nigerian stock market capitalisation from about N160tn to N225tn, while the promoters were targeting about 10 million retail investors.
The Chairman of Jaiz Bank, Mohammed Bintube, said the offer had also passed Sharia compliance screening, describing the structure as an innovation that could broaden participation in the Nigerian capital market.
Also speaking, Professor Uche Uwaleke of Nasarawa State University urged investors to hold the shares for the long term.
He noted that the prospectus provided an additional share as a bonus for investors who retained their holdings for at least one year.
He called for increased participation by ordinary Nigerians, particularly workers, artisans and small-business owners.
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