By Political Analysis Desk
The Traditional Rulers Controversy
A more recent controversy concerns Makinde’s relationship with traditional rulers. Democracy Watchers, a socio-political group, has accused the governor of “intimidating Oyo monarchs” ahead of the 2027 elections, alleging that his recent statements and the actions of his political associates represented an attempt to bring the traditional institution under political control.
The controversy was heightened by allegations from Fayose that Makinde was plotting to remove the Olubadan of Ibadanland, Oba Rashidi Adewolu Ladoja. The Olubadan’s palace dismissed the claim as “false, misleading and constitutionally impossible.” The palace further questioned the motive behind what it described as a rapidly shifting narrative within Oyo State’s political space.
The Oyo APC has also cautioned Makinde against allegedly intimidating traditional rulers and religious leaders over their interactions with APC candidates and supporters. The controversy speaks to a broader tension between Makinde’s modernising instincts and the entrenched power of traditional institutions in Yoruba politics.
The UN Probe Controversy
One of the most significant controversies of Makinde’s tenure was his call for a United Nations-led investigation into the abduction of pupils and teachers from schools in Orire Local Government Area. The governor argued that the circumstances surrounding the abduction and the 56-day captivity warranted independent international scrutiny.
The Senate rejected the call, accusing Makinde of “politicising Nigeria’s security challenges” and warning that internationalising the incident could undermine public confidence in the country’s security institutions. The Presidency similarly faulted the request, describing it as “unnecessary and politically motivated”. Senator Adams Oshiomhole argued that inviting foreign organisations to investigate the incident could undermine Nigeria’s sovereignty.
However, the Oyo State House of Assembly backed the governor’s position, insisting that mass abductions of schoolchildren had become a disturbing pattern requiring fresh approaches beyond conventional security responses. The Assembly maintained that seeking a transparent review of the incident was not an indictment of the Federal Government or the security agencies.
The controversy reflected a fundamental tension in Nigerian federalism: the boundary between state autonomy and federal authority over security matters. It also positioned Makinde as a governor willing to challenge the federal government’s narrative, a posture that could enhance his opposition credentials but also alienate powerful federal interests.
The APC’s Counter-Offensive
The Oyo State chapter of the All Progressives Congress has dismissed Makinde’s presidential ambition as a “political drama script” and a “charade,” warning that he will be held accountable for all resources spent on it. The party’s publicity secretary, Olawale Sadare, accused the governor of using state resources to promote his ambition and threatened that he would be “made to cough out all the public funds he wasted on it”.
“It is important for us to reiterate that Gov. Makinde does not possess the wherewithal to slug it out with President Bola Tinubu in 2027 but he (Makinde) is only out to make some noise and distract the global community,” Sadare said. The APC further predicted that Makinde would come a “distant 8th position” if he appeared on the ballot, arguing that he lacked the personal quality, experience, and strategy to be president. The APC’s statement, while lacking specific evidence of fund diversion, reflects the ruling party’s determination to frame Makinde’s ambition as futile.
The Tinubu Machine: Incumbency and Its Advantages
President Bola Tinubu enters the 2027 race with the full weight of incumbency behind him. The APC Presidential Campaign Council, led by Senator Abdul’aziz Yari, has indicated that the campaign will focus on the president’s achievements rather than making fresh promises. Yari’s first official engagement as Director-General was with traditional rulers in Zamfara, underscoring the campaign’s emphasis on grassroots engagement and the support of traditional institutions.
The support infrastructure around Tinubu’s re-election is extensive. Transporters for Tinubu/Shettima 2027 have unveiled structures across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, targeting at least 20 million votes. In Ondo State, support groups have commenced door-to-door campaigns, taking the re-election message to towns and villages across the state’s 18 local government areas. Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has pledged to campaign for Tinubu across all 36 states and the FCT, making himself available for the presidential campaign throughout the electioneering period.
The APC’s institutional advantages are formidable. The party controls the presidency, a majority of state governorships, and a substantial bloc in the National Assembly. Its ability to deploy state resources for campaign purposes, while often criticised, is a reality that opposition candidates must contend with. And the president’s personal political network, built over decades in Lagos and extended nationally, remains a potent electoral asset.
The National Mood: Discontent and Its Limits
The context within which this contest will unfold is one of significant public discontent. The removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira triggered sharp rises in the cost of living, inflation peaks, and hardship for many households. Multiple surveys have reflected declining approval ratings for the Tinubu administration, with economic hardship and insecurity ranking among the top concerns of Nigerians. While the Federal Government points to signs of macroeconomic stabilization, improved foreign reserves, stock market gains, and GDP growth, critics argue that these benefits have yet to ease pressure on ordinary citizens.
This discontent creates an opening for an opposition candidate who can articulate a compelling alternative vision. Makinde’s “Reset Nigeria” agenda is designed to speak to these concerns, promising transparency, accountability, and a fundamental reordering of how national resources are managed. His campaign rhetoric acknowledges the lived experiences of Nigerians; “We want to hear from the trader who struggles whenever transport costs rise. We want to hear from the farmer who cannot afford to move produce to the market. We want to hear from the business owner whose costs rise every time the price of fuel changes.”
But discontent alone does not guarantee electoral success. The APC’s victory in 2023 demonstrated that even with significant approval challenges, the ruling party’s structural advantages can overcome popular dissatisfaction. The question is whether 2027 will be different.
The Path to Victory: Assessing Makinde’s Chances
For Makinde to mount a credible challenge to Tinubu, several conditions must be met. First, he must consolidate opposition support across the South-West, building on his base in Oyo State and extending his appeal to Lagos, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, and Ondo. Second, he must overcome the perception that the APM is a weak vehicle incapable of winning a national election. Third, he must articulate a message that resonates not just with the South-West but with voters across Nigeria’s geopolitical zones.
The endorsement of Bala Mohammed suggests that Makinde’s appeal can extend beyond the South-West. The APM’s claimed growing cross-party goodwill and interest from other opposition elements seeking a unified alternative platform could, if translated into concrete alliances, strengthen his national standing. Peter Obi’s presence at the campaign headquarters commissioning, while not an endorsement, signals that opposition politicians are at least willing to engage with Makinde’s candidacy. However, the decision has drawn criticism from some quarters, with Shehu Sani taunting Obi for attending the APM campaign launch, describing it as “selling Pepsi and promoting Coke.”
Yet significant obstacles remain. The PDP’s dismissal of Makinde’s ambition, articulated most forcefully by Wike, reflects the reality that he has chosen to contest on a platform that lacks the institutional heft of the major parties. The APC’s support groups are targeting 20 million votes, a figure that underscores the scale of the challenge facing any opposition candidate. And the incumbency advantage, particularly the ability to deploy state resources for campaign purposes, cannot be underestimated.
Makinde himself appears aware of the scepticism. “They may discount one candidate. But they cannot discount millions of Nigerians united behind a better future,” he declared. Recalling his first governorship campaign when his chances were similarly dismissed, he argued that the electorate had proved the pundits wrong then and could do so again.
The Godfather Paradox
An intriguing subplot is Makinde’s public declaration that he will not become a political godfather after leaving office. At a Hijrah luncheon in Ibadan, he stated that his priority would be to ensure a smooth and peaceful transfer of power, allowing his successor the freedom to govern according to his or her own vision. He explicitly named Bimbo Adekanmbi, the APM governorship candidate in Oyo, and his running mate, Engr. Muftau Open Salawu, promising that they would govern independently if elected.
This declaration carries symbolic weight in a political culture where godfatherism has often undermined democratic accountability. It also positions Makinde as a reformer who practices what he preaches, reinforcing the “Reset Nigeria” narrative. However, it raises questions about his ability to influence the electoral landscape in Oyo State and beyond. If he will not wield the levers of patronage and influence that typically define political success in Nigeria, how does he intend to build the coalition necessary for a national campaign?
The governor has also addressed concerns about his administration’s collaboration with individuals associated with the opposition APC, emphasising that his government is guided by competence and capacity rather than party affiliation. Speaking at the University of Ibadan, he specifically responded to criticisms regarding the involvement of Bimbo Adekanmbi and Dr. Morohunkola Thomas in the state’s political and administrative affairs, stating that his priority is to engage people who demonstrate the ability to contribute meaningfully to the progress of Oyo State, regardless of their political background.
Conclusion: The Mountain Ahead
Seyi Makinde’s presidential ambition represents a fascinating experiment in Nigerian politics: can a candidate with a strong governance record, a compelling message, and a reputation for competence overcome the structural disadvantages of running on a minority party platform against an incumbent with access to vast resources and a nationwide support network?
The answer depends on factors that will unfold over the coming months. The APC’s campaign will focus on Tinubu’s achievements, seeking to frame the election as a choice between continuity and uncertainty. Makinde’s campaign will argue that the country needs a fundamental reset, one that brings transparency and accountability to the management of public resources.
The odds favour Tinubu. The APC’s machinery, the advantages of incumbency, and the fragmentation of the opposition all point to a difficult path for Makinde. The brickwalls of controversy—the aircraft purchase, the land disputes, the Fayose vendetta, the traditional rulers’ controversy, the UN probe rejection—will test his ability to maintain public trust. But as the governor himself has noted, the voters will have the final say. “We count. Our voices count. Our experiences count. Our ideas count. And, together, our votes will count,” he declared.
Whether that sentiment translates into electoral reality is the question that will define the 2027 election. For now, Seyi Makinde has positioned himself as one of the opposition’s credible voices. He presents himself as a candidate who offers competence over chaos, transparency over opacity, and a reset over the status quo. Whether Nigeria is ready to embrace that message remains to be seen.
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