Nigeria’s N10.72tn Africa Export Surge Raises Oil Dependence Concerns

ByChibuzor AlliSeptember 18, 20265 Mins read11

By Chibuzor Alli

Nigeria’s exports to Africa rose to N10.72tn in the first half of 2026, but the sharp increase was driven largely by crude oil and petroleum products, raising concerns that the growth may overstate the strength of the country’s non-oil trade.

Exports to African countries increased by 122.26 per cent from N4.82tn in H1 2025, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics’ foreign trade in goods reports for the first two quarters of 2026.

Crude petroleum, refined fuels, gas products, electricity and urea accounted for 94.75 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa in H1 2026, with a combined value of about N10.15tn.

That compared with a 90.24 per cent share worth N4.35tn in H1 2025.

The oil and gas value chain grew by 133.36 per cent between the two periods, outpacing the 122.26 per cent overall increase in Nigeria’s exports to Africa.

The figures suggest that the rise in exports to the continent was driven disproportionately by petroleum products rather than the non-oil exports that the Federal Government has been promoting.

Nigeria exports to Africa dominated by oil

Identifiable non-oil products in the two periods, including cement, cigarettes, tyres, vessels and food preparations, fell in value from about N309.46bn in H1 2025 to N296.61bn in H1 2026.

That represented a 4.15 per cent decline, even as total exports to Africa more than doubled.

The share of those products in Nigeria’s exports to the continent also fell from 6.42 per cent to 2.77 per cent over the same period.

The oil-versus-non-oil breakdown is an estimate by The PUNCH based on the top 14 to 15 product lines disclosed in the NBS’s quarterly top-traded-products data for Q1 and Q2 of 2025 and 2026.

The NBS does not separately publish a full per-product breakdown of total exports to Africa.

The trend comes as the Federal Government pushes to expand non-oil exports and the Dangote Petroleum Refinery increases its presence in the export market.

Nigeria’s exports to Africa stood at N1.38tn in H1 2020 before falling to N963bn in H1 2021 and N904.05bn in H1 2022.

Exports rebounded to N1.31tn in H1 2023 and then jumped to N4.21tn in H1 2024, representing a 221.32 per cent increase.

The figure rose more modestly to N4.82tn in H1 2025 before climbing to N10.72tn in H1 2026.

Experts question naira value of exports

Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, warned against interpreting Nigeria’s naira-denominated trade figures at face value, describing the pattern as a “naira illusion” linked to the currency’s devaluation.

Naira illusion refers to the appearance of rapid trade growth driven mainly by the naira’s devaluation and resulting inflation rather than a comparable increase in the dollar value of goods traded.

Teriba said a weaker exchange rate could make trade figures appear larger in naira terms without a corresponding increase in dollar revenue.

“If you got $10 last year and you devalue it, you still got $10. When you go to naira, you say I got N10 last year, and I got N100 this year because the exchange rate has gone to 10 to 1. Only a fool will be happy about that, because nothing has changed,” he said.

The economist said the currency’s depreciation was not deliberately engineered to inflate revenue figures, noting that Nigeria had run down its reserves and could no longer meet foreign exchange demand at the old official rate before the naira was floated.

He added: “It creates the illusion of increased price. Nobody is denying that. But we are saying it is an illusion.”

He maintained that a stronger naira, rather than a weaker one, was in Nigeria’s interest because it would help rein in inflation, while calling for a cleaner measurement of intra-African trade in dollars.

Teriba also noted the contribution of the Dangote refinery to Nigeria’s trade with Africa.

“Dangote Refinery came on stream right around 2024, and it tracks with the increased exports. Stripping away what proceeds from Dangote Refinery will give us a clearer look.”

Dangote refinery drives petroleum exports

Chief Executive Officer of Alpine Supply Chain Solutions, Marcel Mba, a trade and supply chain expert, also linked much of the surge to petroleum products from the Dangote Refinery.

“What I see as contributing to a significant increase in Nigeria’s export to African countries would obviously be refined petroleum products and petrochemicals from Dangote Refinery,” Mba said.

He cautioned against attributing much of the more than 100 per cent growth to non-oil trade.

“Saying that a reasonable part of the over 100 per cent increase can be attributed to non-oil export to other African countries is unrealistic, if not outrightly misleading,” Mba said.

He listed cement, alcoholic bitters and other drinks, vehicles from Innoson Motors and floor tiles as non-oil products that could be contributing to modest growth in Nigeria’s exports to the continent.

Mba said those products had experienced significant growth in local production and were likely expanding into West African markets.

He also called for more detailed trade data.

“The NBS and the Nigerian Customs Service can make life easier for researchers and businesses by making detailed, accurate and verifiable information available on per-product-category exports by countries.”

He called on both agencies to provide a product-by-product breakdown of the N10.72tn export figure.

Weak manufacturing limits export diversification

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group, in a separate analysis, raised concerns about Nigeria’s limited manufacturing content despite rising trade volumes.

“The share of manufactured goods in Nigeria’s total exports increased steadily to 4.3 per cent in Q3 2025 before falling sharply to 1.4 per cent in Q1 2026,” the NESG stated.

The think-tank noted that manufactured goods accounted for just 0.9 per cent of Nigeria’s intra-African trade in Q1 2026, down from 2.0 per cent in Q3 2025.

It said Nigeria was unlikely to fully harness the opportunities created by the African Continental Free Trade Area unless it accelerated the development of a competitive manufacturing sector.

The NESG said this would require Nigeria to reduce its dependence on crude oil exports and expand domestic value addition.

In his remarks on Nigeria’s Q2 Gross Domestic Product figures, the Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, renewed concerns about the weakness of the country’s industrial base and its competitiveness in global markets.

He said, “The drop in manufacturing’s contribution to GDP from 9.57 per cent to 7.72 per cent in a single quarter highlights severe cost pressure, a high exchange rate, outrageous interest rates and exorbitant electricity tariffs facing domestic manufacturers.”

Although manufacturing expanded year-on-year by 3.24 per cent, Ajayi-Kadir noted that “its declining relative share indicates that industrial expansion is lagging behind broader economic activity.”

A notable implication of the continued weakness of the manufacturing sector is the erosion of industrial capacity and technological obsolescence.

Ajayi-Kadir explained: “Suffocating under exorbitant energy tariffs and prohibitive borrowing costs, manufacturers, particularly small and medium industries, are operating far below installed capacity. Instead of expanding production lines or acquiring modern technology, most factories are fighting to keep the lights on, leaving Nigerian industries less competitive globally.”