By Chibuzor Alli
Nigeria lost approximately 3.33 million barrels of crude oil to theft in 2025, even as the country spent billions of naira on energy security, raising fresh concerns over the protection of its petroleum assets and the country’s ability to maximise oil revenue.
The losses were heavily concentrated towards the end of the year, with 2.19 million barrels recorded in the fourth quarter alone, accounting for 65.8 per cent of the annual reported volume.
The figures were contained in the 2025 annual report of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, released on Thursday, which also showed that the commission’s revenue collection declined by N2.14tn during the year.
According to the report, oil and gas revenue fell from N12.56tn in 2024 to N10.42tn in 2025, representing a 17.03 per cent decline.
The fourth-quarter theft figure marked a sharp increase from the 440,434 barrels recorded in the preceding quarter, representing almost five times the third-quarter volume.
In the first quarter, the commission recorded 896,471 barrels of crude theft, while the second quarter produced a negative figure of 200,400 barrels, which the regulator attributed to excess volumes identified during reconciliation.
The commission’s report stated, “Nigeria recorded 896,471 barrels of crude oil theft in the first quarter.
The second quarter recorded a negative 200,400 barrels, which the commission described as an excess volume in its reconciliation. Reported theft stood at 440,434 barrels in the third quarter. The fourth quarter recorded 2.19 million barrels, the highest quarterly volume of the year.”
The development comes against the backdrop of rising expenditure on the protection of Nigeria’s oil and gas infrastructure.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited reported energy security costs of N8.67tn in 2025, compared with approximately N3.1tn in 2024.
Although the entire expenditure cannot be attributed solely to combating crude oil theft, the continued losses despite the substantial security spending raise questions about the effectiveness of interventions to protect petroleum assets and crude evacuation networks.
The stolen volumes also represent potential revenue, export earnings and crude supplies that could otherwise have supported domestic refining activities.
Oil revenue falls below target
Beyond the theft figures, the NUPRC report showed that Nigeria generated N10.42tn in revenue against a projected target of N16.54tn, representing 63 per cent of the expected collection.
Oil and gas royalties, including Project Gazelle and NNPC receivables, remained the largest revenue contributor, generating N8.97tn in 2025, down from N11.08tn in the previous year.
This represented a decline of N2.11tn, or 19.03 per cent.
The report stated, “The total approved budget for 2025 was N645,462,335,500.80, with total income of N342,814,462,174.97 and total expenditure was N304,533,385,103. Total revenue generated was N10,424,478,448,682.40, which is 63 per cent of projected revenue of N16,538,206,608,738.00.
“357 oil spill incidents were reported. 49.5 per cent of the spills were a result of sabotage. There was an increase of 64.74 per cent in revenue in 2024 over 2023 and a decrease of 20.53 per cent in 2025 over 2024 revenues,” the report added.
Some revenue streams record growth
Despite the overall revenue decline, some non-royalty revenue sources recorded significant increases during the year.
Receipts from gas flare penalties rose by 56.27 per cent, from N391.26bn in 2024 to N611.42bn in 2025.
Signature bonuses increased by 44.2 per cent, from N369.58bn to N532.94bn, while concession rentals climbed by 61.1 per cent, from N23.71bn to N38.19bn.
Miscellaneous revenue also increased from N35.20bn to N46.44bn.
However, royalty by price declined from N313.72bn to N213.41bn, while lease renewal receipts plunged from N230.73bn to N8.23bn.
The commission’s income from the cost of revenue collection and internally generated revenue increased by 21.85 per cent to N342.81bn in 2025, compared with N281.34bn in 2024.
Cost of revenue collection accounted for N335.45bn, while internally generated revenue contributed N7.36bn.
Oil production and pipeline security concerns
Despite the reported theft, Nigeria produced 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate in 2025.
Quarterly production stood at 132.70 million barrels in the first quarter, 137.69 million barrels in the second, 137.45 million barrels in the third and 133.23 million barrels in the fourth quarter.
The country also produced 48.52 million barrels of unblended condensate during the year.
The regulator further documented 357 oil spill incidents, with sabotage responsible for 49.5 per cent of the reported cases.
The figures highlight the continuing challenges facing Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector, particularly the protection of oil infrastructure, reduction of production losses and improvement of revenue performance.
With crude theft remaining a major concern and revenue collections falling below projections, the latest figures put renewed attention on the country’s efforts to secure its oil assets and translate petroleum production into stronger government earnings.
Leave a comment