By Chibuzor Alli
Nigeria is facing a $6.4bn Eurobond repayment exposure through 2030, with the World Bank warning that higher interest rates and shorter debt maturities could make refinancing increasingly costly for African governments.
The figure places Nigeria jointly third with Ghana among sub-Saharan African countries with the largest sovereign Eurobond principal falling due between 2024 and 2030, behind South Africa, which has $11.8bn in maturities.
The World Bank disclosed this in its October 2026 Africa Economic Update, titled Building AI Readiness, which examined debt-servicing and refinancing pressures confronting economies across the continent.
The report said, “South Africa faces the largest repayment burden, with US$11.8 billion, with maturities in every year of the period. It is followed by Ghana ($6.4bn), Nigeria ($6.4bn), and Angola ($3.9bn).”
Across 13 sub-Saharan African countries, the World Bank estimated that about $43.6bn in sovereign Eurobond principal would mature between 2024 and 2030, after accounting for bond buybacks and liability-management operations completed through August 2026.
Nigeria’s share represents about 14.7 per cent of the regional maturity burden, while South Africa, Ghana and Nigeria collectively account for $24.6bn, or roughly 56 per cent of the total.
Higher borrowing costs raise Nigeria’s refinancing risk
The size of Nigeria’s upcoming obligations is significant not only because of the principal involved but also because international borrowing has become substantially more expensive since global interest rates began rising in 2022.
Nigeria has been one of the biggest issuers of Eurobonds in sub-Saharan Africa. The World Bank said the region issued about $122bn through 158 sovereign Eurobond transactions between 2015 and August 2026.
Nigeria accounted for $20bn across 18 transactions, making it the second-largest issuer behind South Africa, which raised $23.7bn through 15 transactions.
Angola followed with $15.8bn, Côte d’Ivoire with $15bn, Ghana with $12.6bn and Kenya with $12.2bn.
International capital markets became largely inaccessible to African sovereigns following the global tightening cycle. In 2022, Nigeria, Angola and South Africa were the only sub-Saharan African countries able to issue Eurobonds, according to the report.
Market access improved in 2024, with Nigeria raising $2.2bn, while South Africa raised $3.5bn, Côte d’Ivoire $2.6bn and Kenya $1.5bn.
However, the reopening came with significantly higher financing costs.
The World Bank said Nigeria’s 2024 Eurobond issues carried coupons of 9.6 per cent and 10.4 per cent, about 300 basis points above comparable Nigerian issuances in 2021.
Across the region, yields on bonds issued during the 2024 reopening ranged from 7.1 per cent to 10.4 per cent, representing increases of roughly 300 to 500 basis points compared with comparable pre-2022 levels.
Refinancing could deepen fiscal pressure
The World Bank said most African governments facing Eurobond maturities were relying on refinancing rather than paying down the debt entirely from government revenues.
While refinancing can reduce immediate pressure from maturing obligations, the bank warned that replacing old debt with more expensive borrowing could increase debt-service costs over several years.
“Although refinancing operations help ease near-term rollover pressures, they also lock in higher debt service costs for years to come, increasing fiscal burdens and reducing policy space even as immediate refinancing risks subside,” the report said.
Kenya provides an example of the challenge. The country refinanced most of a $2bn Eurobond that matured in 2024 by issuing $1.5bn in new debt, supplemented with budget resources.
The new borrowing carried a yield of 10.4 per cent, compared with a 6.9 per cent coupon on the original debt.
Ghana instead addressed its obligations through a debt exchange completed in October 2024, while Ethiopia restructured its $1bn debut Eurobond after defaulting in late 2023.
Shorter maturities create another risk
The World Bank said refinancing pressures could become more frequent because many Eurobonds issued during the 2024-2026 reopening have shorter maturities than those issued before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Recent bonds generally carry five- to six-year maturities, compared with 10- to 12-year tenors that were more common before the pandemic.
The combination of shorter maturities and elevated interest rates means governments may have to return to international markets sooner, potentially at unfavourable borrowing costs.
“For several Sub-Saharan African sovereigns, Eurobond financing increasingly resembles a refinancing cycle in which successive rollovers address near-term maturities but gradually erode fiscal space through higher debt service costs,” the Bank stated.
The regional maturity profile remains significant despite liability-management exercises. The World Bank said obligations falling due in 2028 had been reduced to about $5.5bn, while larger concentrations of $6.6bn and $7.5bn are expected in 2027 and 2029 respectively.
Debt service competes with development spending
The pressure extends beyond Eurobonds. Public and publicly guaranteed external debt service across sub-Saharan Africa has remained around 1.6 to 1.7 per cent of GDP since 2021, according to the World Bank.
The bank warned that rising interest and principal payments were absorbing government revenues that could otherwise be directed towards infrastructure, human capital development and social protection.
For Nigeria, the challenge is therefore not limited to meeting the $6.4bn Eurobond maturity exposure. The cost of refinancing those obligations could also determine how much fiscal space remains available for other government priorities in the years ahead.
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