6G Set to Reach 2.4bn Connections by 2035 as 5G Dominates

By Chibuzor Alli

Sixth-generation mobile technology is projected to reach about 2.4 billion connections globally by 2035, but the transition will be gradual, with 5G expected to remain the dominant mobile technology for much of the next decade.

GSMA Intelligence made the projection in its latest mobile technology outlook, which extends its forecasts to 2035 and highlights the growing investment required to meet rising demand for mobile network capacity.

For Nigeria, the forecast points to a longer technology transition. The country’s mobile market remains heavily dependent on 4G, while 5G adoption is still at an early stage, suggesting that operators will have to deepen existing network deployments before 6G becomes commercially significant.

6G adoption to accelerate after 2030

GSMA Intelligence expects 6G adoption to remain limited through the end of the decade, with only about 50 million connections forecast by 2030, representing 0.5 per cent of global mobile connections.

Growth is expected to accelerate rapidly thereafter, with 6G connections projected to rise to about 275 million in 2031 and nearly 740 million in 2032.

“The number of 6G connections is forecast to exceed one billion in 2033, reaching about 1.3 billion before rising to 1.9 billion in 2034 and 2.4 billion in 2035,” the forecast indicated.

Despite the rapid growth, 6G is not expected to displace 5G immediately. Instead, operators are likely to run multiple generations of mobile technology alongside one another as networks evolve.

By 2035, GSMA Intelligence forecasts that 5G will still account for about 60 per cent of global mobile connections, compared with 23 per cent for 6G and 17 per cent for 4G.

Nigeria still focused on 4G and 5G

Nigeria’s network landscape underscores the scale of the transition ahead.

Data from the Nigerian Communications Commission showed that 4G accounted for 54.31 per cent of mobile subscribers in July 2026, making it the country’s dominant technology. 2G represented 36.54 per cent, while 5G accounted for only 4.74 per cent and 3G for 4.42 per cent.

The figures indicate that operators still have substantial room to expand 5G coverage and migrate customers from older technologies before 6G becomes a mainstream proposition in Nigeria.

Globally, GSMA Intelligence expects operators to spend the remainder of the 2020s strengthening 5G networks, deploying 5G Standalone and introducing 5G-Advanced capabilities. Many of the architectural and technological changes associated with these developments are expected to provide a foundation for 6G.

Advanced markets expected to lead

The earliest 6G deployments are expected to be concentrated in advanced mobile markets, particularly East Asia, North America and parts of Europe.

These markets already have extensive 5G coverage, established device ecosystems and strong demand for additional network capacity, creating favourable conditions for early 6G adoption.

China is expected to play a major role because of the size of its mobile market. GSMA Intelligence projects that more than half of the country’s mobile connections could use 6G by 2035.

North America is also projected to record 6G adoption of about 50 per cent by the end of 2035, while Europe is expected to reach about one-quarter of mobile connections.

Adoption is likely to be slower across several emerging markets, where 6G penetration could remain below 10 per cent by 2035 as operators continue investing in 5G coverage and customer migration.

Spectrum pressure to intensify

The push towards 6G is also being driven by expectations of a sharp increase in mobile data consumption.

GSMA Intelligence projects global mobile network traffic to more than quadruple from about 144 exabytes per month in 2025 to 604 exabytes per month in 2035.

Annual traffic growth is expected to average about 15 per cent, driven by video consumption, artificial intelligence, extended reality and 5G fixed wireless access.

The emergence of AI-enabled devices, cameras, sensors and extended-reality applications could further change how networks are used. Instead of devices primarily consuming content, more devices will generate and transmit data, increasing demand for uplink capacity, low latency and network reliability.

The GSMA estimates that densely populated countries could require between 2GHz and 2.5GHz of mid-band spectrum between 2035 and 2040 to meet future demand, compared with about 1GHz currently identified for mobile use in most countries.

The organisation said an additional 1GHz to 2GHz of mid-band spectrum could therefore be required, alongside improvements in spectral efficiency and greater network densification.

Global framework for 6G takes shape

The International Telecommunication Union established the IMT-2030 framework for 6G in 2023, setting the foundation for the development of next-generation mobile systems.

Work has since progressed, with draft technical performance requirements agreed in February 2026.

The requirements cover six usage scenarios, including enhanced versions of existing mobile capabilities as well as applications involving ubiquitous connectivity, artificial intelligence and communications, and integrated sensing and communications.

For Nigeria and other emerging markets, the GSMA projections suggest that the immediate priority will remain strengthening existing networks and expanding 5G adoption, even as the global industry begins laying the groundwork for 6G.