Nigeria’s Telecom Market Rebounds as 45m Subscriptions Return

By Chibuzor Alli

Nigeria’s active telecom subscriptions have increased by 44.8 million over the past decade, rising from 150.3 million in July 2016 to 195.1 million in July 2026, according to analysis of data from the Nigerian Communications Commission.

The 29.8 per cent increase highlights the long-term expansion of Nigeria’s telecommunications market despite periods of significant contraction, including a sharp decline in 2024 following the enforcement of the National Identification Number-SIM linkage requirements.

Data from the regulator showed that active subscriptions fell from 220.72 million in July 2023 to 166.66 million a year later, representing a decline of 54.06 million, or 24.5 per cent.

The July 2023 figure was the highest subscription level recorded in the 10-year series.

The decline followed intensified enforcement of the NIN-SIM linkage policy by the telecom regulator, resulting in the disconnection of lines that had not met the required verification conditions.

The market subsequently began to recover, although growth was initially modest.

Active subscriptions increased by 2.67 million, or 1.6 per cent, between July 2024 and July 2025, reaching 169.33 million.

The recovery accelerated in the following year, with active subscriptions rising by 25.78 million from July 2025 to July 2026. This represented a 15.2 per cent increase, taking the total to 195.11 million.

The latest growth means the industry has recovered 28.45 million subscriptions, or 17.1 per cent, from the July 2024 low.

However, the market remains 25.61 million subscriptions below the July 2023 peak, indicating that the recovery has not yet restored the industry to its pre-NIN-SIM enforcement level.

The 10-year data also showed periods of both expansion and contraction in Nigeria’s telecom market.

Active subscriptions fell from 150.26 million in July 2016 to 139.14 million in July 2017, representing a reduction of 11.12 million, or 7.4 per cent.

Growth resumed strongly in 2018, with subscriptions rising to 161.79 million, an increase of 16.3 per cent. This was the largest year-on-year increase recorded in the 10-year series.

The industry added another 17.38 million subscriptions in the year to July 2019, taking the total to 179.18 million.

By July 2020, subscriptions had climbed to 199.31 million, an increase of 20.13 million, or 11.2 per cent, from the previous year.

The market recorded another temporary decline in 2021, when subscriptions fell by 11.5 million, or 5.8 per cent, to 187.81 million.

Growth returned in 2022, with subscriptions increasing by 21.16 million, or 11.3 per cent, to 208.97 million.

A further 11.75 million lines were added in the year to July 2023, pushing the total to 220.72 million before the sharp contraction the following year.

Despite the disruption caused by the 2024 decline, the long-term trajectory remains positive.

The 195.11 million active subscriptions recorded in July 2026 were 44.85 million higher than the 150.26 million recorded in July 2016.