In 3 days, the people of Osun State will go to the polls to elect the 11th governor of the state. It promises to be a keen contest between the incumbent, Ademola Adeleke, 66, of Accord, and Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji(AMBO), 60 of the All Progressives Congress, with Najeem Salaam, 61 of African Democratic Congress, a former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly from 2011-2015 providing a 3rd force.Despite being the 9th smallest state in the federation, the Osun State election remains on of its most intriguing. In 2018 for example, Gboyega Oyetola of the APC won by just 482 votes in a contentious re-run election, after the INEC determined that his opponent, Ademola Adeleke, then of the PDP, who won the initial election did not get enough votes to be declared winner. In 2022, Adeleke would reclaim the office which he felt he was unjustly denied from Oyetola, winning by around 25000 votes, not quite the dramatic result of the one he lost, but still one of the smallest winning margins in Nigerian elections history.
What makes Saturday’s contest more knife-edge is the fact that the results of the election have always determined who would win the state in the presidential elections the following year. In 2015 the late President Muhammadu Buhari won the state in 2015, after Rauf Aregbesola’s (APC) reelection in 2014, and again in 2019, after Oyetola won the state in 2018. Atiku Abubakar of the PDP won the state in 2023, (his only win in the South West region) after Adeleke won in 2022. So, it is an election that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be paying special attention to, for this exact reason, as he rallies his forces ahead of his own bid for reelection in 2027.
The Main Contenders
Candidates from 14 political parties would be battling for the chance to occupy the chance to occupy the Bola Ige House, Abere until 2030, but the winner is expected to be either Adeleke or Oyebamiji, with Salaam having a slight outside chance at best.
For Ademola Adeleke from Ede, who currently occupies the office and is seeking a 2nd term, he will be banking on the power of incumbency to carry him to victory on Saturday. Another thing that may also play into Adeleke’s hands is his popularity, at least compared to his opponents. Being from the popular Adeleke family which also counts among its members the First Executive Governor of the State, the late Isiaka Adeleke, and the superstar Afrobeats artiste David “Davido” Adeleke, being top of mind in a relatively remote state like Osun might actually be enough to win. Interestingly, Adeleke, despite actually being born with a silver spoon, is a populist, and he will be hoping that like Rauf Aregbesola, one of his predecessors in the office, he can bring that populism to bear.
As for his weaknesses, there are those who believe that Adeleke, derogatorily called the “Dancing Governor” or “Ade Dancer”, lacks the intellectual and administrative capacity to be governor They would point out that even as governor his policies as governor so far have appealed to the lowest common denominator, and that is a sign of an unfit individual who cannot deliver what Osun State needs. There is also the belief that he is a weakling who is only a puppet, being pulled by certain individuals, particularly his brother Adedeji, to turn Osun State into their personal cash cow.
As if things are not bad enough, Adeleke no longer has the luxury of allies that he had four years ago. Without the might of the PDP, the only party that has been able to somewhat match the APC since 2015, he is easy pickings for a Tinubu led APC which has been steadily regaining momentum back in the region. He himself may have realized this, hence his decision to publicly declare his support for President Tinubu, the backer of his main opponent. He will be hoping fervently that he can connect with the “elitist” side of the president, and get him to not wield “Federal Might” against him.
For Munirudeen Oyebamiji (AMBO) , in terms of education and administrative experience, he is easily the most qualified of the three. The Ikire-born banker, gained extensive experience in the banking industry before entering politics to serve in governors Rauf Aregbesola and Gboyega Oyetola’s respective cabinets as the Commissioner for Finance. He also serves as the CEO of the National Inland Water Ways authority. He is also the youngest of the three so he can be said to be the most vibrant, and will develop the most impactful Youth focused programs. Also, certain influential individuals, like former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, who feel they have been marginalized under Adeleke, have pitched their tents with AMBO, and that may work in his favour.
Unfortunately, his position as Finance Commissioner under the two previous APC governors, especially Rauf Aregbesola has made him extremely unpopular. AMBO as he is known as is regarded as the boogeyman for some of Aregbesola’s unpopular policies and there are those who believe that if he wins, he may bring back the austerity that civil servants in the state witnessed during Aregbesola’s tenure as governor.
There is also the ongoing concern over whether AMBO has what it takes to win an election. Skeptics argue that AMBO lacks a real connection to the grassroots and he really can’t win without the “establishment” propping him up. Of the three main contenders, AMBO is the only one not to have been elected to any position in the state. A vote for AMBO, his detractors argue, is a vote for a stooge or a “boy boy” (in local parlance) of Gboyega Oyetola and by extension President Tinubu.
For Najeem Salaam, he has served as Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, so at least he has shown that he has the clout to win an election. Also, he enjoys the support of Former Osun State Governor, and National Secretary of the ADC, Rauf Aregbesola and also the Presidential candidate of the party for the 2027 presidential elections, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. If AMBO and Adeleke both cancel each other out, there is no better contender to pull a surprise 3rd force victory than him.
Unfortunately, history is stacked against him. No third force has ever won an election in the state. Furthermore, analysts point out that his association with Aregbesola will prove to be a hindrance rather than a help. As it is, Aregbesola is not only deeply unpopular in the state due to his policies when he was governor, his fallout with President Tinubu in 2023 means that he no longer wields the political and financial influence he once wielded.
Thus, it is doubtful whether Aregbesola or Atiku for that matter can help Najeem Salaam to garner the support he needs to get to Abere. His odds of winning are,admittedly, not very favorable, but they not nonexistent either.
The President Tinubu Factor
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has always had a sentimental attachment to the Osun State governorship elections, even in the years before he became president. 23 years after his term ended, Chief Bisi Akande remains a major influencer voice within APC, Rauf Aregbesola, before their fallout, was a former commissioner under him in Lagos, and he openly battled Oyinlola and the PDP establishment to help Aregbesola regain his mandate in 2010. Gboyega Oyetola, who succeeded Aregbesola, is PBAT’s relative, and was reportedly his personal handpicked choice for the position. There is no doubt that Tinubu is emotionally invested in seeing the APC take over the government house and AMBO will feel a lot more confident about his chances for that reason alone.
But again, Tinubu has never been anything but pragmatic, and would rather use resources to alter an unfavorable situation to his advantage rather than waste resources trying to achieve an optimal one. As Teslim Folarin learnt in Oyo State in 2023, he is not above ditching his own party’s flagbearer if he feels the opponent has better electoral value. Governor Ademola Adeleke of course is banking on this being the case and has been doing everything to keep himself in Tinubu’s good graces, including publicly endorsing him for 2027. And Tinubu is not immune to the attention from Adeleke either, while he has publicly and unequivocally endorsed AMBO as his preferred candidate, he hasn’t exactly wielded “Federal Might” against Adeleke as he should have.
The Verdict
Other than in 1999, when Chief Bisi Akande won with a good margin, the Osun State Governorship elections is one of those in which you can’t call a clear winner until the results are out. Because the top two candidates AMBO and Adeleke cancel each other out in many ways, we may be in for a repeat of the 2018 rerun saga where the winner emerged with less than 500 votes, or 2023 where a relative underdog took out an incumbent with personal ties to a president in waiting. Whatever happens it is going to be a keen contest with a nail-biting finish for sure.
Leave a comment