Nigeria’s PMS exports near N1tn as Dangote refinery boosts supply

By Chibuzor Alli

Nigeria’s PMS exports reached N998.50bn in the first six months of 2026 as increased production at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and disruptions to global fuel supplies helped transform petrol from a major import item into one of the country’s leading exports.

The National Bureau of Statistics’ trade statistics report for the second quarter of 2026 showed that N621.72bn of the earnings came from Nigeria’s African trading partners.

In the second quarter alone, Premium Motor Spirit, also known as petrol or motor spirit (ordinary), generated N546.02bn in export earnings, accounting for 2.02% of Nigeria’s total exports and placing it seventh among the country’s top exported commodities.

Crude oil remained Nigeria’s biggest export in the quarter at N12.91tn, representing 47.79% of total exports. It was followed by kerosene-type jet fuel at N2.94tn, natural gas at N2.82tn, urea at N2.12tn, other petroleum gases at N1.89tn and gas oil at N1.32tn.

Nigeria’s PMS exports surge from previous year

The growth in Nigeria’s PMS exports marks a sharp reversal from the position a year earlier.

PMS was not among Nigeria’s leading exports in the first quarter of 2025. Instead, it was one of the country’s major imports, with Nigeria spending N1.76tn to purchase the product.

PMS returned to the top-export list in the second quarter of 2025, generating N85.83bn. The N546.02bn recorded in the second quarter of 2026 was therefore more than six times the amount earned from PMS exports a year earlier.

Investment research analyst Abeeblahi Rufai said the limited exports in the first quarter of 2025 reflected the absence of sufficient surplus refined petrol after domestic demand was met.

“The limited PMS exports in Q1’25 reflected the absence of an exportable refined product surplus. Nigeria remained a heavy importer of petrol, spending N1.76trn on PMS imports in the quarter, which indicates that domestic demand was still absorbing Dangote Refinery’s output.”

Rufai said outages and maintenance at the refinery’s Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking unit also affected gasoline production.

An RFCC unit is an advanced secondary conversion facility in an oil refinery that converts extremely heavy, low-value residual oils into higher-value products such as gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas.

He added that domestic supply obligations under the naira-for-crude arrangement, alongside political pressure to prioritise the local market, further restricted opportunities to export petrol.

Dangote refinery drives Nigeria’s PMS exports

According to Rufai, the subsequent increase in Nigeria’s PMS exports was driven by two major factors: the ramp-up of the Dangote Refinery and the impact of the Iran war on global refined-product supplies.

He said African countries had traditionally relied heavily on refined products supplied by producers in the Middle East, Asia and Europe.

These included the United Arab Emirates through ADNOC, Saudi Arabia through Saudi Aramco, Oman and India, which supplied markets in East Africa, including Kenya and Tanzania.

Rufai said the Dangote Refinery’s location close to African markets gave it a logistical advantage because shorter shipping distances reduced freight and other logistics costs.

He also said the war in Iran disrupted energy flows through the Middle East and created another opportunity for Nigerian refined products.

“The Iran war of H1’26 was a second catalyst. Disruptions to energy flows via the Middle East, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have constrained supplies to key Asian and European markets, prompting some countries to curb refined-product exports.”

Rufai said sanctions had limited Russia’s ability to make up for the supply shortfall, while Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining infrastructure reduced the availability of its refined products.

The resulting tightening of global refined-product markets increased demand for supplies from refineries outside the conflict zone.

“In this respect, Dangote became an emerging alternative source of PMS to the African markets. Its geographic proximity also lowered the logistics premium compared with supplies from Europe and the Middle East, making Nigerian-origin refined products more attractive to regional buyers,” Rufai said.

Nigeria shifts from fuel importer to exporter

Tomiwa Adeniji, a Senior Analyst at CardinalStone Securities, said Nigeria’s long-standing dependence on imported fuel, despite its position as a crude oil producer, was largely the result of inadequate refining capacity and low utilisation.

She said Nigeria’s refining capacity had increased from about 400,000 barrels per day operating at roughly 1% utilisation before the Dangote Refinery began operations to 1.1 million barrels per day at about 62% utilisation.

Adeniji said the Dangote Refinery began producing PMS in September 2024, although low capacity utilisation during its initial ramp-up limited product availability.

“Nigeria has now transitioned to being a net exporter of refined petroleum products,” Adeniji said.

Economist and Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, said the development followed the refinery’s initial focus on replacing imported fuel in the domestic market.

“Dangote Refinery started with import substitution. So you find that it is now supplying at least more than 50 per cent of local requirements. It is now therefore easing the need to import PMS and in the medium term eliminates importation of PMS,” Teriba said.

He said the refinery subsequently began exporting PMS, diesel and aviation fuel, products that Nigeria had previously imported.

“Such that an item that had dominated our import list is now beginning to diminish in our import list and is now emerging as a dominant commodity in our export story,” Teriba said.

Teriba said the country’s refining and energy sector was continuing to evolve, with similar developments expected across PMS, diesel, aviation fuel and urea.

Oil production could support further fuel exports

Nigeria’s refined-product exports could increase further if higher crude oil production provides additional feedstock for domestic refineries.

The Federal Government is deepening oil exploration as part of efforts to increase production and support the supply of crude to local refineries.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, said policies under President Bola Tinubu had increased the participation of indigenous companies in Nigeria’s hydrocarbon production.

He made the statement while speaking to journalists in Abuja on Monday.

Lokpobiri said indigenous companies now account for 60% of Nigeria’s oil production, compared with the 80-90% share previously held by international oil companies.

“Before now, it used to be 90 per cent IOCs. Right now, we have 60 per cent indigenous companies accounting for the production we have in Nigeria. That means 60 per cent retention of value in the country,” Lokpobiri said.

He said international oil companies had not withdrawn from Nigeria but had divested from onshore, swamp and shallow-water assets while concentrating on deep offshore operations.

According to the minister, Nigerian companies have taken over some of the assets divested by the international oil companies.

Lokpobiri also said the number of active drilling rigs had increased from between 10 and 14 to more than 65.

He said Nigeria was targeting crude oil production of at least three million barrels per day in the coming years.