Inside the battle between Governor Dapo Abiodun and Senator Gbenga Daniel for Ogun East Senate ticket-Ogun APC Crisis. From 2019 betrayals to demolition threats, what it means for APC and 2027 elections.
Keywords: Gbenga Daniel, Dapo Abiodun, Ogun East senatorial seat, APC Ogun crisis, Abiodun Daniel feud, Ogun State politics 2027, APC primary battle.
By: Political Analysis Desk
The political war between Ogun State Governor Dapo Abiodun and his predecessor, Senator Gbenga Daniel, has transformed from a simmering cold war into a full-blown inferno. At its heart lies a simple question: Who will control Ogun East Senatorial District in 2027?
But beneath that question lies a decade of betrayals, a governorship won by the slimmest of margins, accusations of sabotage, midnight demolitions, and a political friendship turned toxic. This analysis chronicles the battle, examines the accusations, including Daniel’s claim that Abiodun worked against the party in 2019, and extrapolates the implications for the senatorial district, the APC, and Ogun State.
The Strange Bedfellows of 2019
To understand the current animosity, one must rewind to the 2019 governorship election, a contest that political scientists still cite as a textbook case of “enemy of my enemy.”
The protagonists were three former friends: Gbenga Daniel (governor, 2003–2011), Ibikunle Amosun (governor, 2011–2019), and Dapo Abiodun (the newcomer who would become governor) . Their relationship had followed a tragic arc: allies in 2003, enemies by 2007, wary collaborators by 2015.
By 2018, Amosun—then completing his second term—had chosen Adekunle Akinlade as his preferred successor, running on the platform of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) after falling out with the APC national leadership . Abiodun, who had sought the Ogun East senatorial ticket from Amosun and been denied, was encouraged by a national party leader to run for governor instead .
Enter Gbenga Daniel.
Despite having been in the PDP, he even served as PDP Presidential Campaign Manager for Atiku Abubakar in 2019, Daniel made a stunning crossover. He not only endorsed Abiodun but actively mobilised his formidable political structure across Ogun East and Ogun Central against Amosun’s candidate .
The result? Abiodun won with a razor-thin margin of approximately 19,000 votes . The APM rejected the result, alleging widespread manipulation . But the victory stood. And Abiodun owed it, in no small measure, to Daniel.
That debt, Daniel now claims, has never been repaid.
The Senator’s Lament – “I Was Used and Discarded”
By Daniel’s account, the betrayal began almost immediately after Abiodun’s inauguration.
Speaking at his Asoludero Court residence in Sagamu in November 2025, Daniel alleged that despite his efforts that helped Abiodun actualise his governorship ambition in 2019, the governor had “continued to undermine my senatorial ambition since 2022” .
Daniel detailed a pattern of calculated humiliation:
Campaign Sabotage (2022): When Daniel flagged off his senatorial campaign on October 2, 2022, at Ita Oba in Sagamu, he dutifully invited Governor Abiodun as Special Guest of Honour. According to Daniel, the governor not only failed to attend or send a representative but “passed an instruction around to discourage party members from attending. Those who disregarded such directives were sanctioned. Some public servants who ignored the order not to attend were served query letters” .
Inauguration Snub (June 2023): When Daniel chartered aircraft to convey Ogun East stakeholders to Abuja for his Senate inauguration, the governor, through Secretary to the State Government Tokunbo Talabi, allegedly “started calling several leaders who were already on the manifest, some of whom had already boarded, including traditional rulers, to disembark” .
Project Sabotage (2025): Daniel accused the state government of issuing “stop-work orders” on federal constituency projects facilitated through his office, including the rehabilitation of Itanrin Road and General Hospital Road in Ijebu-Igbo. He claimed that local government chairmen under pressure from the governor assumed the contractors were “OGD’s contractors” and moved to frustrate the projects. “If by December 2025 this order is not lifted, the funding will be lost,” he warned .
Suspension Attempt (November 2025): Daniel’s purported suspension by APC Ward 4 in Sagamu—which he called “political theatrics orchestrated by two or three aides of the governor”—was swiftly nullified by the APC National Working Committee . But the damage was done. Daniel alleged the suspension had nothing to do with anti-party activities and everything to do with “Abiodun’s quest for the Ogun East senatorial ticket in 2027” .
Abiodun’s camp has dismissed these claims. Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Kayode Akinmade, countered that Daniel was “only playing to the gallery” and questioned why the former governor failed to appear before the Ward 4 disciplinary panel if he believed he was innocent .
The 2019 Accusation – Did Abiodun Work Against His Own Party?
One of the most explosive accusations in this feud—implicit in Daniel’s complaints but explicit in political gossip across Ogun, is that Abiodun worked against the APC in the 2019 Lagos East Senatorial District election, contributing to the victory of PDP’s Adebutu.
While direct evidence remains elusive, the accusation speaks to a deeper narrative: that Abiodun’s political base in Ogun East was so weak in 2019 that he could not deliver his own senatorial district for the party. The numbers are instructive.
| Election | APC Candidate | PDP Candidate | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Governorship (Ogun East) | Dapo Abiodun | Adekunle Akinlade (APM) | Slim | Abiodun won statewide by ~19,000 votes |
| 2019 Senate (Ogun East) | Tolu Odebiyi | Ramoni Olalekan Mustapha (Adebutu) | PDP win | APC lost |
In Ogun East, Abiodun’s home senatorial district and Daniel’s political base, the APC lost the senatorial election to the PDP’s Adebutu. Abiodun’s inability to deliver his own district, despite winning the governorship, has been a persistent talking point among critics.
Daniel’s camp has weaponised this narrative, suggesting that Abiodun’s political machine is “a Potemkin village”, impressive from a distance but hollow at the local level. Abiodun’s allies counter that the 2019 election was an anomaly, complicated by Amosun’s APM candidacy splitting the progressive vote.
Whatever the truth, the accusation reveals a fundamental vulnerability: Abiodun has never convincingly demonstrated that he controls Ogun East’s grassroots. And that is precisely the territory Daniel has farmed for two decades.
The Landlord vs. The Governor, Demolitions and Due Process
Perhaps the most visceral symbol of this feud has been the battle over buildings.
In August 2023, DATKEM Plaza, a multi-storey complex in Ijebu-Ode belonging to Daniel’s wife, was demolished in the early hours of a Sunday, while courts were closed and litigation was ongoing. The Abiodun administration cited planning violations. Daniel’s camp called it “midnight political vendetta.”
In August 2025, the state government issued demolition orders on all properties belonging to Senator Daniel, including his private residence and hotels in Sagamu and Ijebu-Ode. Official notices alleged violations of the Ogun State Urban and Regional Planning and Development Law No. 61 of 2022.
But legal experts pointed out a glaring problem: the law cannot retroactively apply to buildings completed in 2004 . As one legal analyst explained: “The principle of non-retroactivity in law is clear: a new statute cannot be used to penalise acts or developments lawfully carried out under previous regulations unless the law explicitly states otherwise” .
More troubling was the process. The authority served “a contravention notice, a notice to quit, and a threat of demolition within three days, all initiated the same day. This is not how town planning enforcement works. By skipping straight to demolition threats, the government has signalled that it is not interested in due process” .
Daniel obtained restraining orders from the Ogun State High Court sitting in Sagamu, halting the demolitions pending a hearing . But the message had been sent: no property of Daniel’s, no matter how long-standing or legally compliant, was safe.
The government denied any political motive, describing the notices as part of a “routine urban renewal audit” . Few in Ogun believed this.
The Core Issue : Who Controls Ogun East in 2027?
All roads lead to 2027.
Governor Abiodun is constitutionally ineligible for a third term. Like many Nigerian governors, he is eyeing a “soft landing” a Senate seat that would keep him politically relevant, provide immunity, and position him for future national roles .
The problem: that Senate seat (Ogun East) is currently occupied by Gbenga Daniel, who has no intention of vacating it.
Daniel, who will be 71 in 2027, sees Ogun East as his political birthright. He governed Ogun State for eight years, has maintained a formidable grassroots structure across the nine local government areas of the district, and believes he has earned the right to choose his political exit .
Abiodun, from Iperu Remo in Ogun East, argues that the district deserves a senator with executive experience and that his two terms as governor have prepared him for national legislative leadership.
The clash is not merely personal. It is structural.
Daniel’s Strengths:
- Two-term governor with legacy projects across Ogun East
- Deep roots in Remo and Ijebu political blocs
- Extensive network of loyalists across all nine LGAs
- National relationships (President Tinubu publicly celebrated Daniel’s 70th birthday in April 2026)
Abiodun’s Strengths:
- Incumbent governor with control of state machinery
- Access to federal patronage through Tinubu
- Ability to deploy resources (and, critics say, demolition notices)
- Endorsed as “consensus candidate” by some APC stakeholders in Ogun East
The consensus endorsement, announced in April 2026, was rejected by Daniel as “politically engineered” . Daniel insists on an open primary: “Consensus requires agreement by all parties involved. What happened was an endorsement” .
READ ALSO: Lagos PDP Crisis: Twenty Years of Wasted Opposition
The Challenge: “Debate Me Live on Television”
On May 14, 2026, Daniel raised the stakes dramatically.
Appearing on TVC’s Beyond The Headlines, the senator issued an open challenge to Governor Abiodun: a live, televised debate on the issues surrounding the Ogun East senatorial contest .
“There are certain lines you don’t cross in this business,” Daniel warned, adding that political decisions being taken around the governor could damage his administration .
He then delivered the gauntlet: “This is an open invitation. And between you and I, if you don’t do that, my assumption is that he ran away. It’s an open challenge” .
Daniel even asked the programme anchor to arrange a joint appearance: “You will have done this programme a disservice if you don’t pair us. And let’s do it quickly” .
The host confirmed that the programme would formally invite Abiodun for the proposed debate . As of this writing, the governor has not publicly responded.
The President’s Shadow, Tinubu’s Balancing Act
One factor complicates everything: President Bola Tinubu’s relationship with both men.
Tinubu has known Gbenga Daniel for decades. In his 70th birthday tribute to Daniel in April 2026, the President recalled that Daniel “worked closely with me and others to ensure my election victory, a successful inauguration, and a seamless transition” as Lagos State governor in 1999 . Tinubu also noted that Daniel “mobilised the Heritage Group, comprising Yoruba professionals, to support my election” .
This is not mere pleasantry. Tinubu has a long memory for political debts. Daniel’s support in 1999 when Tinubu was an underdog against the PDP establishment is not easily forgotten.
Yet Abiodun is Tinubu’s sitting governor. The President has generally supported incumbent governors seeking Senate seats, viewing them as loyal foot soldiers who delivered their states for his re-election.
How Tinubu navigates this will shape the outcome. Daniel himself has hinted at his deference to the President: in his TVC interview, Daniel stated that he would withdraw from the race if President Tinubu personally directed him to do so.
That statement is both a strategic retreat and a political trap. It places the onus on Tinubu to choose between an old ally and a sitting governor—a choice that will reverberate across the South-West.
Implications for Ogun East, the APC, and 2027
For Ogun East Senatorial District
The district risks becoming a political battlefield where governance takes a backseat to rivalry. Already, Daniel has alleged that federal constituency projects are being stalled due to the feud. If the crisis deepens, residents who care more about roads, hospitals, and schools than about political egos will be the ultimate losers.
The district may also face a choice between two capable but bitterly opposed leaders. Daniel’s legislative record includes sponsoring a bill for a Federal Medical Centre in Ijebu-Ode and facilitating numerous boreholes, solar streetlights, and free eye surgeries for over 4,000 residents . Abiodun’s executive record includes the Gateway Agro-Cargo International Airport, extensive road rehabilitation, and industrial expansion .
A primary election that splits the APC could hand the seat to the PDP a scenario neither man wants but both may be too proud to avoid.
For the APC in Ogun State
The party is already fractured. Amosun’s camp, Daniel’s camp, and Abiodun’s camp represent three power blocs that have never fully reconciled. The 2019 election required Daniel and Amosun to work against each other for Abiodun to win. That is not a sustainable coalition.
If Abiodun uses state machinery to force Daniel out, he risks alienating Daniel’s loyalists, many of whom are not card-carrying APC members but “Danielites” who followed him from the PDP. If Daniel wins an open primary, Abiodun may refuse to campaign for him, weakening the APC’s chances in the general election.
Either way, the APC enters 2027 wounded.
For Ogun State
The broader implication is leadership succession. Abiodun’s focus on securing a Senate seat raises questions about his attention to governance in his final two years. Daniel’s focus on defending his political turf raises questions about his legislative productivity.
Meanwhile, the state’s development its proximity to Lagos, its industrial potential, its agricultural opportunities risks being overshadowed by a personal feud that has nothing to do with the welfare of ordinary citizens.
The Unanswered Questions
As this analysis goes to press, several questions remain:
- Will President Tinubu intervene? His public tributes to Daniel suggest affection, but his political calculus favours sitting governors. A quiet word from the President could resolve the crisis. But whose side would that word favour?
- Will there be an open primary? Daniel insists on one. Abiodun’s camp prefers consensus. The APC National Working Committee, which nullified Daniel’s suspension, may have to decide.
- Can either man afford to lose? For Daniel, a loss would mark the end of a political career spanning three decades. For Abiodun, a loss would be a humiliating defeat by a man he once depended on—and a stain on his legacy.
- What of the demolition orders? The court-ordered restraining orders are temporary. If the government renews its demolition threats, the feud could escalate beyond politics into physical confrontation.
Friendship’s Reckoning
The Abiodun-Daniel feud is not merely about a Senate seat. It is about the nature of political debt, the limits of gratitude, and the brutal reality that in Nigerian politics, yesterday’s ally is tomorrow’s opponent.
In 2019, Daniel extended a hand to Abiodun when the governor needed it most. Six years later, that hand has been slapped away. Daniel’s sin, it seems, was expecting loyalty in return for loyalty.
Abiodun’s calculation is more cold-blooded: in politics, there are no permanent allies, only permanent interests. And his interest in 2027 is a Senate seat that Daniel currently occupies.
The people of Ogun East will watch, wait, and if history is any guide suffer the consequences of a battle between two giants who forgot that politics is supposed to be about service , not supremacy.
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